PREACHBOT v1.0 // 50,000 SIMULATED SEASONS // FROZEN SEPT. 10, 2026
THE PREACHBOT PROJECTION MODEL
PreachBot ran the realm 50,000 times so the boys would not have to spend four months pretending their opinions were based on evidence.
Injuries will happen. Trades will happen. Somebody will blame the schedule. Herm and T-Mart — brothers, naturally — will eventually be accused of collusion to keep one of the Martin brothers out of the ACT, because apparently competitive integrity ends where the family tree begins. None of that changes the receipt. This is what the machine believed before Week 1 started settling arguments.
THE OFFICIAL RECEIPT // PREACHBOT v1.0
THE 2026 FORECAST BOARD
Frozen Sept. 10, 2026 · 50,000 completed simulations
The graphic is the frozen poster. The tables below are the permanent, mobile-friendly receipt. Same numbers. No moving the goalposts in December.
SECTION I // THE PROPHECY
50,000 SEASONS LATER
Frozen preseason receipt · Rank ordered by championship odds
| RK | House | Proj PF | Exp W | Title | Bye | Playoff | Avg Finish | ACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chan | 1,849.94 | 9.53 | 27.66% | 47.71% | 98.59% | 2.81 | 0.01% |
| 2 | Beans | 1,816.94 | 9.54 | 23.15% | 45.27% | 98.38% | 2.91 | 0.00% |
| 3 | BDR | 1,803.84 | 10.00 | 21.74% | 54.11% | 99.15% | 2.58 | 0.01% |
| 4 | Preach | 1,785.35 | 9.43 | 18.68% | 39.80% | 97.93% | 3.10 | 0.01% |
| 5 | Tres | 1,646.26 | 7.45 | 5.09% | 7.01% | 83.48% | 5.12 | 0.40% |
| 6 | Bug | 1,613.34 | 7.42 | 3.36% | 5.72% | 82.68% | 5.24 | 0.44% |
| 7 | Bru | 1,452.42 | 5.18 | 0.27% | 0.27% | 21.53% | 7.41 | 7.61% |
| 8 | Drag | 1,406.49 | 4.35 | 0.04% | 0.08% | 9.92% | 8.15 | 17.59% |
| 9 | JP | 1,367.13 | 3.63 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 4.75% | 8.75 | 33.43% |
| 10 | Houle | 1,347.52 | 3.48 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 3.60% | 8.92 | 40.51% |
FULL FINISH DISTRIBUTION // REGULAR SEASON
| House | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chan | 25.4 | 22.3 | 20.2 | 17.1 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Beans | 21.9 | 23.3 | 21.2 | 17.3 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| BDR | 29.7 | 24.4 | 20.1 | 14.4 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Preach | 18.8 | 21.0 | 21.5 | 19.5 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Tres | 2.3 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 15.0 | 26.3 | 26.7 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Bug | 1.8 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 13.8 | 26.1 | 29.4 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Bru | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 13.6 | 33.6 | 23.2 | 14.1 | 7.6 |
| Drag | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 6.7 | 19.6 | 29.2 | 23.7 | 17.6 |
| JP | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 3.4 | 11.1 | 19.9 | 30.8 | 33.4 |
| Houle | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 9.2 | 18.3 | 28.3 | 40.5 |
MODEL NOTES // READ THIS BEFORE CRYING
PreachBot v1.0 uses the current Shy City rosters, the actual Weeks 1–14 league schedule reconstructed from Sleeper, official NFL bye weeks and a fixed Sept. 9 rest-of-season Half-PPR offensive baseline. Each simulated week selects the best reasonable lineup available from the roster and applies player/position volatility before playing the real Shy City opponent.
Six teams make the playoffs, the top two receive byes and standings ties are broken by points for. Kicker and D/ST use external rest-of-season baselines; those positions are intentionally a smaller input because your scoring is custom and naturally volatile.
The receipt rule: future injuries, trades, suspensions, terrible lineup decisions and any emergency Martin family collusion summit can move the weekly model. They cannot rewrite this preseason snapshot.
SECTION II // THE HOUSE DOSSIERS
WHAT THE MACHINE THINKS OF YOU
Ten rosters entered the machine. Ten managers left with something to complain about.
#1 // THE REIGNING KING
CHAN // 27.7% TITLE
Maye, Herbert, Bijan, Breece, Puka and Nico give PreachBot almost nowhere to poke a hole. Worse, Chan already has the crown, so the usual “last year was bullshit” defense is getting harder to prosecute.
He is also Shy City’s lone Bears fan, which means the league is respectfully preparing to support him through the franchise’s eventual rebrand as the Indiana Bears.
PREACHBOT VERDICT: The crown stays in Chicago for now. The franchise apparently does not.
#2 // THE QUIET KILLER
BEANS // 23.2% TITLE
Dak, Daniels, McCaffrey, Cook, CeeDee, Flowers and Kittle can win the whole damn thing. Beans will not tell you that. He will say something like “yeah, team is alright” and then score 160 while everyone else is arguing in the chat.
The Nebraska fandom has probably helped. After enough seasons hearing “this might finally be the year,” emotional restraint becomes a survival skill.
PREACHBOT VERDICT: If Beans tells you the roster is pretty good, check whether your season is already over.
#3 // THE HUSKER BUNKER
BDR // 21.7% TITLE
Gibbs, Hampton, Bucky, London, Olave and Egbuka are already enough. Rice and Nabers are still sitting behind them. BDR has somehow built the roster Nebraska fans have been promising themselves is coming every August since the Big Ten move.
The machine actually gives him the best regular-season path in the league: 10.0 expected wins, a 54.1% bye rate and the best average finish.
PREACHBOT VERDICT: Two titles in the database. One and an asterisk in the hearts of the people.
#4 // THE GREAT AWAKENING
PREACH // 18.7% TITLE
Hurts, Caleb, Taylor, Henry, JSN, DeVonta, Ladd and Warren. The computer likes the roster, which is extremely convenient considering Preach built the computer, named the computer and will quote the computer every time somebody disagrees with him.
The actual 50K run still put him fourth in title odds. Apparently even his own propaganda department has limits.
PREACHBOT VERDICT: Every August he talks like there is already a banner hanging. The trophy case remains a podcast.
#5 // THE SEA SNAKE
TRES // 5.1% TITLE
Achane, Jeanty, Higgins, Garrett Wilson and McBride give Tres enough firepower to make anybody nervous. Stafford and Stroud give Preach enough material to mention the quarterback room roughly 600 times before Thanksgiving.
The good news: an 83.5% playoff probability. The bad news: ask Tres what that means and the explanation may include Drew Brees, a 2009 Saints drive and a story from a golf trip before you reach the conclusion.
PREACHBOT VERDICT: Every roster has a story. Tres’s has a prologue, six chapters and an unsolicited Drew Brees comparison.
#6 // THE INFORMATION BROKER
BUG // 3.4% TITLE
Goff, Nix, Barkley, Chase Brown and Amon-Ra still give Bug an 82.7% chance to reach the playoffs. The championship number is only 3.4%, which may be the cleanest mathematical summary of his dynasty career ever produced.
There is one small issue: the ten-year championship bet with Preach is finally due. Win the crown or write the check. “Next year” has officially been removed from the dropdown menu. His Texas Longhorn fandom remains under separate review for authenticity.
PREACHBOT VERDICT: Chronic bridesmaid syndrome now has a probability distribution.
#7 // THE VIKINGS INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
BRU // 21.5% PLAYOFF
Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Justin Jefferson are the fantasy equivalent of owning three Ferraris while the rest of the garage contains lawn equipment.
If T-Mart drifts anywhere near ACT territory, the league also knows the Martin family emergency-response plan: deny everything, accuse the schedule and make sure nobody looks too closely at Herm’s lineup.
PREACHBOT VERDICT: Elite firepower. Questionable supporting cast. Collusion hotline already programmed into the phone.
#8 // THE FALLEN KING
DRAG // 9.9% PLAYOFF
Mahomes, Baker and Ja’Marr Chase still give Garth championship nostalgia. The problem arrives when the lineup scrolls past the stars and starts looking like a bar that was incredible in 2024 but management stopped replacing the furniture.
Fortunately, no manager in Shy City has invested more aggressively in recovery. Other people use ice baths. Garth has Linda and the legendary four hands.
PREACHBOT VERDICT: Roster depth is questionable. Massage depth is elite.
#9 // THE BAYOU CASINO
JP // 33.4% ACT
Lamar and Kyler can ruin anybody’s Sunday. The rest of the roster has the structural integrity of a Bourbon Street balcony after an LSU night game.
Two championships and multiple seasons from hell prove there is no middle setting here. JP does not rebuild, stabilize or quietly contend. He either finds a heater or drives the whole thing into the swamp.
PREACHBOT VERDICT: Either storming King’s Landing or asleep in a ditch. Check back Sunday.
#10 // THE LONG REBUILD
HOULE // 40.5% ACT
Jeremiyah Love, Tet, Mendoza and the future assets make the long-term plan legitimately interesting. Unfortunately, Sleeper continues its discriminatory policy of awarding zero fantasy points for promising 2027 draft capital.
PreachBot ran 50,000 seasons. Houle won the championship in none of them and finished 10th in 40.5%. The ACT study guide remains within reach.
PREACHBOT VERDICT: The future is bright. The present would like to file a grievance.
PREACHBOT RECEIPTS // NO DELETING THE BAD ONES
WEEKLY PICKS LEDGER
Straight up. Against the spread. Direwolf. All season.
STRAIGHT UP
0–0
The machine begins undefeated, which is the easiest part of the season.
AGAINST THE SPREAD
0–0
Every posted line becomes a receipt. “I meant the other side” is not an accepted scoring adjustment.
DIREWOLF
0–0
One underdog every week. Maximum glory or a very public bad take.
WEEK 1 // CARD LOCKED
| Battle | SU Pick | FTSB Line | ATS Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preach vs JP | Preach | Preach -36.0 | Preach -36.0 | Pending |
| Houle vs Bug | Bug | Bug -25.5 | Bug -25.5 | Pending |
| Bru vs Beans | Beans | Beans -24.5 | Beans -24.5 | Pending |
| Drag vs Chan | Chan | Chan -21.5 | Chan -21.5 | Pending |
| BDR vs Tres | BDR | BDR -10.0 | Tres +10.0 // DIREWOLF | Pending |
WEEK 1 // PREACHBOT’S CARD NOTES
PREACH -36.0: Nothing says independent analytics like PreachBot laying five touchdowns with the guy who named the model. Compliance has opened a file.
BUG -25.5: The ten-year bet comes due and Bug opens against Houle. Even Littlefinger would call that suspiciously convenient.
BEANS -24.5: The quiet killer gets T-Mart. Beans will probably say three words all week and somehow be up 40 by Sunday afternoon.
CHAN -21.5: The defending champ gets Drag. If Chan covers three touchdowns, Indiana Bears merchandise will be accepted as legal tender in the group chat.
DIREWOLF — TRES +10.0: BDR should win. Ten points is where FTSB starts acting like Picnic Rick is the 1985 Bears.
Line of record: the FTSB spread shown when PreachBot posts the weekly card is frozen for grading. Trades, injuries and Martin family emergency meetings can change future projections; they cannot change an old pick.
| Week | SU | ATS | Direwolf | Autopsy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Pending | Pending | Tres +10.0 // Pending | The first public audit begins when the opening slate closes. |
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