Thursday morning, the Raven asked a question: When is the Season Witching Hour?
Apparently Sunday.
Week 4 took the two cleanest things left in Shy City and destroyed both of them. The league entered Sunday with two undefeated teams and one winless team. It left with none of either.
Preach and Gator finally fell. Houle finally won. Drag’s Direwolf bit outright. Baby Beans became Daddy Beans. Bug survived the Extermination Game. Chabby climbed back to .500.
Four teams now sit at 3–1. Two sit at 2–2. Four sit at 1–3.
Welcome to parity.
🤮 HOULY SHIT
Houle 158.86 — Preach 134.86
There is no spinning this one.
PreachBot installed undefeated Preach as a 24.5-point favorite, looked at Shy City’s only winless team, and essentially called the restaurant in advance:
DINNER WITH SCHMUCKS
Party: Houle
Expected arrival: December
Reservation status: We’re calling ahead.
Houle apparently took that personally.
As Tet and Carolina started going off, Herm reported from the scene:
“Man Houle doing some freaky shit to Preach.”
Houle’s response was considerably more direct:
“Fuck you preachbot.”
Fair.
Big Rig dropped 158.86, handed Preach his first loss, ended his own winless season, and immediately began reassessing his place in the hierarchy:
“Like what is my ceiling? Championship or slightly out of the ACT dinner”
Four hours earlier this man was headed toward 0–4 with a dinner reservation. Now he’s talking about the fucking Belt.
PreachBot Receipt: -24.5 was an atrocity. No appeal. No excuses.
But before Houle begins fitting himself for the Belt, the Iron Throne has reviewed his petition:
4.3% Playoffs · 95.7% Sewer · 55.7% ACT · 0.1% Belt
Congratulations on the win, Big Rig.
Your dinner reservation has been moved from 7:00 to 7:30.
👶 TWENTY TOES UP
Beans 173.02 — Tres 132.26
For three weeks we’ve been waiting for Beans to become a father. On Friday, Baby Cal arrived.
By Sunday, Beans and Cal were already home together watching the Cowboys.
TEN TOES UP → TWENTY TOES UP
Then Beans celebrated fatherhood in the only manner appropriate for Shy City: by dropping 173.02 on Rocky and moving to 3–1.
Last week Beans scored 188.92 while waiting for the baby. This week he scored 173.02 with the baby.
Apparently sleep deprivation is his competitive advantage.
Cal has been alive for four days and his father already owns one of the strongest rosters in Shy City, a 3–1 record and 22.3% Belt odds.
Rocky, meanwhile, spent exactly one week enjoying life outside the deepest reaches of the Sewer before falling back to 1–3.
Welcome to Shy City, Cal. Twenty toes. Three wins.
🐺 THE DIREWOLF BIT
Drag 116.14 — BDR 108.76
Thursday’s question was simple: Can Gator survive Mahomes Week?
Turns out he didn’t even need Mahomes Week. Drag won ugly.
The Direwolf was Drag +4.5. Drag didn’t merely cover it — he walked into the undefeated Gator’s swamp and won outright, 116.14–108.76.
Neither team exactly painted the Mona Lisa. Doesn’t matter. BDR’s undefeated season is over.
As the upset became reality, Rosey immediately sounded the alarm:
“Whoa presser watch in God’s country.”
Gator’s response:
“I have nothing to say. Just going to puke for 10 min straight and upload it publicly to YouTube.”
Perfect.
Because after avoiding the microphone to start the season, BDR is officially on Presser Watch for his first presser of 2026.
The undefeated season is gone. The Direwolf got him. And somewhere in God’s Country, Gator has some explaining to do.
Meanwhile, perhaps the most absurd receipt on the entire Iron Throne belongs to Drag:
Sept. 10 Belt Odds: 0.04%
Today: 9.4%
That’s not a rise. That’s a resurrection.
Gator remains 3–1 with 16.9% Belt odds, so nobody needs to organize a funeral. Just give him ten minutes, a bucket, and a YouTube account.
🐺 DIREWOLF: CASHED OUTRIGHT.
🐛 THE BUG WOULD NOT DIE
Bug 147.44 — Herm 140.86
This was the Matchup of the Week for a reason. Herm wanted to squash the Bug. Instead, the Bug survived.
PreachBot got this one almost exactly right: Bug wins straight up, but Herm +8.5 covers. That won’t provide Herm much comfort.
Bug escapes the rivalry game at 2–2 and suddenly owns one of the most interesting profiles in the league.
86.5% Playoffs · 14.5% Belt
Original championship odds: 3.36%.
Herm’s appeal has also been reviewed:
17.1% Playoffs · 82.9% Sewer · 19.7% ACT · 0.6% Belt
The court recognizes that the father of three is simply trying to feed his family. The court also recognizes that he’s 1–3.
APPEAL DENIED.
🐻 ROOMMATE VIOLENCE
Chabby 162.88 — Bru 137.94
Two former University of Minnesota roommates entered at 1–2. Only one was leaving .500.
Chabby — despite spending much of September looking like his roster had been involved in a multi-car accident — dropped 162.88 and sent Bru to 1–3.
Two weeks ago, Chabby was getting Belt-to-Assed while allegedly shopping for couches. Now he’s 2–2, getting healthier, and sitting directly on the Iron Throne knife edge:
50.4% Playoffs · 49.6% Sewer
Perfectly balanced.
Bru gets the other side of the equation. Three consecutive losses have dropped him to 25.5% Playoffs · 74.5% Sewer.
Nothing like having your old college roommate shove your chair a little closer to Dinner with Schmucks.
🤖 PREACHBOT: WEEK 4 RECEIPTS
| Pick | Result |
|---|---|
| Bug over Herm | ✅ |
| Herm +8.5 | ✅ |
| BDR over Drag | ❌ |
| Drag +4.5 — Direwolf | 🐺 OUTRIGHT WIN |
| Beans over Tres | ✅ |
| Beans -10.5 | ✅ |
| Preach over Houle | ☠️ |
| Preach -24.5 | ☠️☠️ |
| Chabby over Bru | ✅ |
| Bru +3.5 | ❌ |
Week 4: 3–2 SU · 3–2 ATS · 1–0 Direwolf
Season: 14–6 SU · 11–9 ATS · 2–2 Direwolf
The machine correctly called Bug, Beans and Chabby outright and unleashed Drag +4.5 as the Direwolf, which won outright.
It also hung Preach -24.5 against Houle.
We don’t need to discuss that further. Houle already did:
“Fuck you preachbot.”
Receipt accepted.
👑 THE IRON THRONE — AFTER WEEK 4
| House | Record | Playoffs | Sewer | ACT | 🏆 Belt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preach | 3–1 | 98.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 28.5% |
| Beans | 3–1 | 96.6% | 3.4% | 0.1% | 22.3% |
| Gator / BDR | 3–1 | 94.2% | 5.8% | 0.1% | 16.9% |
| Bug | 2–2 | 86.5% | 13.5% | 0.4% | 14.5% |
| Drag | 3–1 | 86.2% | 13.8% | 0.3% | 9.4% |
| Chabby | 2–2 | 50.4% | 49.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| Tres | 1–3 | 41.2% | 58.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Bru | 1–3 | 25.5% | 74.5% | 12.6% | 1.4% |
| Herm | 1–3 | 17.1% | 82.9% | 19.7% | 0.6% |
| Houle | 1–3 | 4.3% | 95.7% | 55.7% | 0.1% |
The biggest risers since the original prophecy: Bug 3.36% → 14.5%, Preach 18.68% → 28.5%, and Drag 0.04% → 9.4%.
The biggest collapse remains Chabby: 27.66% preseason Belt favorite → 3.3%.
🕯️ THE WITCHING HOUR
There are no undefeated teams left in Shy City. There are no winless teams left either.
Four teams are 3–1. Two are 2–2. Four are 1–3.
Week 4 was supposed to tell us who was separating from the pack. Instead, it did the opposite.
It compressed the realm.
The Belt race got deeper. The Sewer got more crowded. Dinner with Schmucks suddenly has a much larger reservation list.
And if Week 4 was the Witching Hour — Week 5 is when somebody has to start paying the bill.
Leave a comment