WEEKLY RAVEN // WEEK 6 RECAP // OCTOBER 20, 2026
THE MODEL HAS STARTED PICKING SIDES
Six weeks are gone.
For most of September, Shy City was one giant traffic jam. Everybody had a case. Nobody was dead. Every manager could find enough evidence to convince himself the Belt was still sitting somewhere in his future.
Week 6 started making those arguments harder.
Five teams now sit at 4–2. Two are 3–3. Bug has slipped to 2–4.
And Herm and Houle?
1–5.
The Iron Throne has started choosing favorites. The ACT Study Group has started taking attendance.
And on Monday night, two matchups went completely off the rails.
🌙 MONDAY NIGHT VOODOO & BEDTIME STORIES
Two Shy City games entered Monday hanging by a thread.
One required Louisiana black magic.
The other required a newborn, three 49ers and one sleeping Big Rig.
Neither ended peacefully.
🪄 BRU 83.08 — DRAG 82.40
LOUISIANA VOODOO
Last week, Garth had one complaint about the Raven: not enough coverage of his players.
PreachBot heard him.
Unfortunately, so did his roster.
One week after dropping 181.06 on Preach, Drag responded with 82.40.
Not one starter reached 11 fantasy points.
Patrick Mahomes: 10.48.
Mike Evans: 10.9.
And then Evans left Monday night after roughly two quarters, effectively killing whatever comeback Drag had left.
Bru did not exactly seize the evening.
He survived it.
83.08–82.40.
A margin of 0.68 points.
That is barely fantasy football.
Somewhere in Louisiana, Bru apparently lit a candle, buried a chicken bone in the backyard and whispered Garth’s name into the bayou.
Then Mike Evans disappeared.
Louisiana voodoo remains undefeated.
Bru moves to 3–3. Drag falls to 4–2.
And after demanding more player coverage, Garth finally got it:
His players scored 82.40.
👶 BEANS 138.78 — HOULE 137.66
TEN TOES UP
Elsewhere Monday night, Houle did something dangerous.
He went to sleep.
Beans and Baby Cal did not.
Beans and Cal were ten toes up, watching San Francisco slowly erase Houle’s lead.
Christian McCaffrey: 26.2.
James Cook had already banked 22.8.
Brock Purdy: 17.36.
George Kittle: 15.4.
One by one, the points came in.
Meanwhile, Houle had actually assembled one of his better performances of the season.
Bryce Young gave him 19.84.
Tetairoa McMillan delivered 20.5.
Kirk Cousins added 18.52. (You like that?)
It still wasn’t enough.
When Houle woke up:
Beans 138.78.
Houle 137.66.
A 1.12-point loss.
That is cruel.
Beans escapes to 4–2 and somehow emerges from the experience as PreachBot’s new championship favorite.
Houle falls to 1–5.
He still does not own his 2027 first-round pick.
Bru does.
At this point, Bru should probably start sending Houle thank-you cards after every loss.
The ACT Sewer Dinner no longer needs to hold Houle’s reservation. His name is already on the table.
🇺🇸 PREACH 161.16 — GATOR 148.48
THE GREAT AWAKENING RESPONDS
One week after Drag kicked his ass, Preach drew the hottest team in Shy City.
BDR had just thrown up 203.52.
The puke bucket had apparently transformed Gator into a fully operational death machine.
Preach answered with 161.16.
Tyler Shough, one week removed from being publicly humiliated by Brian Flores while Preach watched from inside the Superdome, bounced back with 26.96.
Bhayshul Tuten dropped 22.7.
Jonathan Taylor added 20.1.
JSN delivered 19.4.
Kansas City’s defense chipped in 15.
Gator did not have a bad week. Trevor Lawrence scored 27.34. Jordan Love added 20.24. Another 22.5 came from the lineup.
BDR still produced 148.48.
It simply wasn’t enough.
Preach moves to 4–2 and immediately repairs much of the damage from the Dream Team disaster.
The Iron Throne now gives him 99.2% playoff odds and 23.8% Belt odds.
And that projection already accounts for Jalen Hurts being on injured reserve.
PreachBot remains bullish on Preach.
For one week, Preach’s lineup decisions finally agreed.
👶 CHABBY 135.76 — HERM 87.32
UNCLE CHABBY WON’T GO AWAY
Uncle Chabby has now won three straight.
Drake Maye led the charge with 23.8. D’Andre Swift added 21.0. The lineup produced another 20.9-point performance, and the rest did enough to turn this matchup into another miserable Sunday for Herm.
Chabby is now 4–2.
Which makes his ongoing feud with the Iron Throne increasingly funny.
Preseason championship odds: 27.66%.
Current championship odds: 7.5%.
So Chabby keeps winning while PreachBot keeps becoming less convinced he can win the Belt.
Uncle Chabby has won the microphone. He has won three consecutive games.
He has apparently not won the machine.
Herm, meanwhile, produced 87.32.
One starter gave him 0.2. Indianapolis gave him 2.0. Nobody in the starting lineup even reached 14 points.
Lamar Jackson remains out. Davante Adams is now also carrying an Out designation.
Five consecutive weeks of emergency waiver-wire staffing have apparently produced a roster that satisfies the minimum legal requirements for participation.
Herm is now 1–5.
The rebuild remains aggressive.
The victories remain theoretical.
🪨 TRES 137.26 — BUG 92.38
DRAFTMASTA STATUS: PENDING REVIEW
Bug spent part of last week reminding everyone that he is the DraftMasta.
He also informed the room that many people consider him clairvoyant.
Week 6 then produced 92.38 points.
Kenneth Walker tried to keep the lights on with 26.9. Christian Watson contributed 18.6. Harold Fannin gave him 1.4. His kicker contributed 1.0.
The rest of the roster mostly demonstrated excellent attendance.
Tres had no such problem. He put up 137.26 and moved back to 3–3.
Bug falls to 2–4.
The DraftMasta remains exceptionally skilled at revisiting historical rookie classes and announcing that he was correct.
The championship-building portion of the résumé remains under active peer review.
The Wrigley file remains sealed.
For now.
👑 IRON THRONE INDEX // AFTER WEEK 6
THE MODEL HAS STARTED PICKING SIDES
Six weeks of actual scoring are now baked into the model.
The picture is becoming much less polite.
🏆 BELT FAVORITE
Beans
33.0%
👑 CHASING
Gator 25.8%
Preach 23.8%
🍽️ ACT WATCH
Herm 34.5%
Bru 27.5%
Houle 21.9%
Beans is now the biggest preseason riser. He opened at 23.15% championship odds. Today: 33.0%.
He became the Belt favorite approximately 12 hours after barely surviving a 1–5 Houle team by 1.12 points.
Fantasy football analytics remain a serious science.
Chabby remains the model’s biggest preseason disappointment, which is becoming a very strange sentence to write about a man who has won three straight games.
And then there is Drag.
4–2. 76.4% Playoffs. 3.4% Belt.
Apparently PreachBot watched the 82-point performance too.
⚖️ HERM’S WEEKLY APPEAL
The father of three is now 1–5.
Playoffs: 1.3% · Sewer: 98.8% · ACT: 34.5% · Belt: 0.01%
The Court acknowledges Lamar Jackson.
The Court acknowledges Davante Adams.
The Court acknowledges the injuries.
The Court acknowledges five consecutive weeks of emergency waiver-wire staffing.
The Court also acknowledges:
87.32 points.
Herm is simply trying to feed his family.
Unfortunately, his fantasy team appears unable to feed itself.
Appeal denied.
🤖 PREACHBOT RECEIPTS
WEEK 6: 4–1 SU · 4–1 ATS · 1–0 DIREWOLF
PreachBot had a strong week on the board.
Preach over Gator: ✅ SU · ✅ Preach +1.5
Drag over Bru: ❌ SU · ✅ Bru +8.5 · 🐺 Direwolf cashed
Chabby over Herm: ✅ SU · ✅ Chabby -18.5
Beans over Houle: ✅ SU · ❌ Beans -24.5
Tres over Bug: ✅ SU · ✅ Tres -7.5
Season ledger: 21–9 SU (70%) · 17–13 ATS (56.7%) · 4–2 Direwolf (66.7%).
The Direwolf moves to 4–2 after Bru +8.5 survived the Louisiana voodoo special outright.
📉 THE STATE OF THE REALM
| RECORD | HOUSES | STATE OF PLAY |
|---|---|---|
| 4–2 | Beans · Preach · Gator · Chabby · Drag | Five-way fight at the top |
| 3–3 | Tres · Bru | Alive, but no cushion |
| 2–4 | Bug | Running out of room |
| 1–5 | Houle · Herm | ACT Study Group |
On paper, five teams tied at 4–2 looks like parity.
The model sees something very different.
Beans, Gator and Preach have separated themselves as the three primary Belt threats.
Chabby keeps winning but still has something to prove to the machine.
Drag has the record of a contender and the underlying profile of someone PreachBot simply does not trust.
Tres and Bru are trying to claw their way into the conversation.
Bug is running out of room.
And Herm and Houle are no longer discussing whether the basement exists.
They are discussing seating arrangements.
Six weeks down. Eight regular-season weeks remain.
Week 7 is here.
The model has started picking sides.
And the ACT Study Group is accepting new members.
